Today, Sunday 26 Oct. 2014, Brazil is going to the polls for the final and conclusive round in the presidential elections. After an election campaign of 111 days, marked by twists in the polls, the sudden death of one of the candidates (Eduardo Campos of the PSB), and typified as the most dirty election campaign in Brazilian history, Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Dilma Rousseff (PT) can now only wait for the choice of the majority of the electorate. Between 08.00 hrs to 17.00 hrs, 142.8 million Brazilians will decide, who will be the next president.
For the second round, the latest polls, released last Friday, show that the Brazilian will have to wait until the last minute to see, who will take the helm of the country per 1st of January 2015. The new polls spread even more doubt on the preference between the PT candidate Dilma Rousseff (left, aka petista) and the tucano Aécio Neves (PSDB central-right).
In the Ibope poll, the PT still is in the lead, but the advantage which was eight percentage points last Thursday, dropped to six. In the Datafolha poll, which again indicated a technical tie, the distance between the presidential candidates went from six to four points. While Ibope recorded 49% for Dilma and 43% for Aécio, Datafolha appeared with the PT 46% and the PSDB 43% of the voter intentions.
In contrast to all other market research institutes in the country, as Datafolha, MDA and Ibope, an analysis conducted by Sensus on request of the political weekly Istoé, indicates the PSDB candidate, Aécio Neves in the lead, with 52.1% of the valid votes. His opponent, sitting president of the republic, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has, according to Sensus, 47.9% of the total valid votes.
But nobody anymore believes the polls from Datafolha and Ibope, as the results are said to be manipulated, the result of the Sensus analysis turned the business community into an euphoric mood.
The dollar and the stock market immediately responded to the Istoé/Sensus results with Bovespa (the stock market in São Paulo) closing Friday with up 2.4% and the dollar falling 1.83%, to BRL 2.46. According to the daily business paper Estado do São Paulo, the move can be interpreted as a response to the Istoé/Sensus survey, released Friday, showing Aécio nine percentage points ahead of Dilma, in combination with information that circulated in the market that analysis by the banks indicated a tie, unlike research results from Ibope and Datafolha released on Thursday (22).
The Istoé/Sensus survey confirms another survey, released earlier by CNT/MDA, in which Aécio Neves is ahead of the PT candidate. He now would total 50.3% of the intentions of the valid votes against 49.7% for Dilma. In the previous survey by CNT/MDA, released on October 20, Dilma appeared with 50.5% of the votes, against 49.5% for Aécio.
And so ended the most bitter dispute since 1989, when the military dictatorship came to an end and the first direct and free presidential elections was held. An elections period nobody can be proud of. The tragic death of Eduardo Campos, the meteoric rise and fall of Marina Silva, the plethora of allegations of corruption involving government, marked the dispute. Excessive attacks and lies also fouled the electoral battle, resulting in an aggressive campaign engaged mainly by PT and representing a setback in the evolution of higher democratic standards.
And what will bring the result? If Dilma Rousseff as representative of the PT, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, wins a new four year term many a Brazilian forecasts a period of doom. Whatever the PT did in the 12 years of govern the country (Lula and Dilma), they proved without doubt that the often used typifying of the PT as petralha is more than correct.
Petralha – The contraction of PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores = Brazilian workers party) and the Irmãos Metralha (The Beagle Boys in English). The word identifies a member of a moralistic political party who when in power, deceives, steals, kills, lies, corrupts, installing a kleptocracy, in other words a state governed by crooks.
I’m not sure Brazil can handle another 4 years of corruption and stagnation and I’m afraid that the (violent) protests, we have seen last year, will be back in the streets.
If Aécio Neves wins the presidential elections today, the central-right party of ex-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who introduced the Plano Real which turned around Brazil’s economic and financial chances and founded the basics for grow of the new Brazilian middle-class and the escape of many Brazilians out of poverty, we might face a prosperous period.
Aécio is a high-qualified administrator, a brilliant organiser and manager. He might miss charisma, but he certainly is able to stimulate industrial grow and that’s what Brazil needs.
But be aware, in Brazil no single party can govern. In almost all situations, whatever the outcome of the elections, the reigning party needs an alliance with others. That’s almost always the 3rd largest party, the PMDB, also known as the parasites.
Do I have faith in the election results? No, I’m afraid we will see another disastrous 4 years.